Tuesday, June 9, 2009

May Statistics & Analysis

Market Watch.*

June 6, 2009. The May statistics are out and we are silly enough to try to figure out what they mean.

[While we have been doing this sort of analysis (and more) for ourselves and our market understanding, we have only put it “out there” since April, 2009. It takes a fair bit of extra work to make it “pretty” and understandable (I hope) to the layman. Please, if anybody out there reads this, tell us what you think. Useful? Useless? What should be taken out? What should be added? Do you agree with the analysis? We really want the feedback.]

Overall: It’s busy out there, much like “Spring” always is. Prices are holding. Relatively low supply and high demand suggest the activity will remain brisk through June. It doesn’t always do that!

Volume: There were 2% more SALES than last May! But still 15% fewer sales than May of 2007. This is consistent with our sense of a surprisingly active Spring market – down from the 2007 wildness, but actually stronger than last year.



The total number of ACTIVE listings declined 8% or about 2000 from last month. Not surprisingly this is well above the peak sellers’ market of ’07. Somewhat surprising in this environment, total active listings is also well below last year this time, indicating a relative dearth of supply.

Why? As noted, sales remained strong. And, although more NEW listings came on the market in May than in April, it was a minor increase. New listings continue to run 30-40% below previous years. So, although demand is down from the peak, supply is down much more.

So what? Sellers continue to “sit tight”. This helps to keep the market reasonably in balance, as you will see from the price discussion. Economic uncertainty is balanced by amazingly attractive interest rates, so the buyers are still coming out. Unless summer arrives the day after this post and everybody goes camping, the market should stay strong through June because supply is tight and there is good demand.

Price: Prices remain virtually unchanged over the past two years. As we explained last month, in order to get to “the same” average price as 2007, prices have risen, fallen, and risen again. And “on average” hides the fact that a lot of the volatility was in the higher dollar brackets.

So what? It STILL sort of depends what you see on the horizon – a rising sun, or a nasty fall off the edge of the world! The analysts seem to think the bottom of the recession is near, but it isn’t unanimous.

Time: “DOM” means “days on market”. Followers will know that we don’t put much stock in this statistic when applied to a single sale or a small sample. But applied to the whole market it still tells a story. Average days on market, year over year has increased significantly! It fell by a couple of days from April to May which is consistent with a busy market but borderline significant statistically.

So What? Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers generally have more time to think and are being more careful; and sellers have to keep their home beautiful and clean a lot longer!

There are, however, more examples of multiple offers than in recent months, though nothing like the ’07 craziness. This is due to the overall “busy-ness” and also suggests sellers have accepted that prices are not going up like they did and are pricing more reasonably.

More detail: Below are a few selected numbers, recognizing that the bulk of our clients are in the Toronto East areas.

If you need help interpreting these, have questions, or would like some specific numbers or analysis, contact us anytime. If you are masochistic enough to want to see the entire Market Watch report, off you go to http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/mw2009/pdf/mw0905.pdf Enjoy.

This Month (May 2009)

Area

Active

New

Sales

AvgPrice

MedPrice

AvgDOM

Avg%List

E01

123

135

109

$458,088

$428,000

19

102

E02

100

131

100

$537,815

$453,050

14

100

E03

205

180

149

$386,833

$370,000

26

98

E04

165

135

104

$261,618

$277,750

31

97

E06

110

94

69

$380,891

$360,000

21

98

E08

201

160

103

$293,101

$286,000

38

96

All East

4,423

3,103

2,158

$314,238

$288,000

34

98

All TREB

21,524

13,686

9,589

$395,609

$337,000

35

98

Last Month (April 2009)

Area

Active

New

Sales

AvgPrice

MedPrice

AvgDOM

Avg%List

E01

128

115

90

$421,850

$412,500

22

99

E02

105

95

85

$641,479

$484,000

28

98

E03

222

171

130

$353,453

$350,000

23

98

E04

181

115

102

$237,866

$264,750

36

96

E06

130

83

63

$396,573

$320,000

34

96

E08

206

107

77

$276,521

$280,000

32

96

All East

4,747

2,744

1,820

$306,890

$278,500

36

97

All TREB

23,515

12,995

8,107

$385,641

$330,000

37

97

Last Year (May 2008)

Area

Active

New

Sales

AvgPrice

MedPrice

AvgDOM

Avg%List

E01

166

205

109

$450,784

$410,525

14

105

E02

150

195

101

$512,674

$464,200

14

101

E03

321

305

165

$387,564

$380,000

19

101

E04

297

213

99

$263,417

$284,500

26

98

E06

145

131

57

$400,423

$349,900

20

99

E08

297

170

95

$287,986

$287,000

29

97

All East

6,186

4,330

2,241

$310,724

$287,000

28

98

All TREB

27,267

18,715

9,411

$398,148

$338,000

31

98

Two Years Ago (May 2007)

Area

Active

New

Sales

AvgPrice

MedPrice

AvgDOM

Avg%List

E01

139

189

140

$408,705

$386,750

13

106

E02

126

174

128

$507,874

$440,950

13

104

E03

327

296

169

$344,077

$335,000

20

101

E04

292

236

124

$270,894

$282,000

24

99

E06

129

138

74

$365,798

$311,800

17

100

E08

369

209

121

$295,755

$277,000

37

98

All East

5,710

4,225

2,610

$305,168

$280,000

28

99

All TREB

23,739

17,399

11,146

$382,787

$325,000

28

99

*Market Watch is a monthly publication of the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) which consolidates monthly statistics for the GTA real estate market.



No comments: