Blog-oliday

You'll be forgiven for thinking this blog has been on holiday for several months already. It has been no holiday, I tell you.

But it will be intentionally inactive until early September in the New Year. It will be slightly re-invented and seriously more regular and disciplined. I hope it will be better.

See you later.

Door to door water heaters

Remember the questionable sales practices involved in door-to-door pitches for heating (gas) contracts, long distance phone plans, etc.? Well, it's rental water heaters these days. We just had a visit from "liveclean.ca" today but there are others.

A wise colleague and friend of mine suggests there is NOTHING sold door to door that you need, or need to make an immediate decision on.

What you will get if you let them in and sign on: ...

Quarry Lands Rally

As the signs say: 1960's zoning does not make good planning.

A rally against the idea of 7 highrises full of teensy apartments is happening Sunday at 2:00 pm. If you live anywhere within 10 miles or more of Gerrard & VicPark/Warden you should be there.

UPDATE: Despite cold and threatening weather many hundreds of folk turned out to this well-organized event.

Representatives of all levels of government expressed support for changing the current planned development.

It shouldn't be this hard. The thing was zoned for this sort of density in 1968 when the "vision" (nightmarish, but a vision) was high-density housing overlooking the Scarborough Expressway! There is now no freeway, thank goodness; but nobody got rid of the zoning and so far, nobody seems able to.

For lots more informed information, got to www.gerrardclonmore.com . Join. Participate.

Uh-oh! ?

As usual I am confused and uncertain enough to be unable to fall in behind either the doomsayers or "everything-is-fine" types with respect to real estate, the economy, exchange rates, pretty much everything.

Generally speaking, everybody is probably partially right. It's the timing that is the rub.

However, here is an interesting little factoid. Today, Thursday, March 25, 2010 in our core business area there were 48 agent open houses for new listings. That is two or three times as many as we would normally expect. Why?.

As usual, I don't know. But here are some possibilities.
• Interest rates are going up soon due to creeping inflation. This will slow the market so everybody is putting their house on the market now to beat the slump. If you buy this one and you need to sell soon, best get your abode on the market NOW. If you buy this one and are looking to buy soon, you might risk waiting a while for the market to slow down. And/or, you should re-double your market-watching -- a big increase in "supply" (new listings) should, all by itself, put a little more balance in the market and could reduce the multiple-offer craziness.

• People THINK interest rates are going up soon ...blah blah. This one could be self-fulfilling. Or not.

• The weather was nice for a few days. Typically, the big rush to market would happen closer to, or just after, Easter. But much like the "winter" slowdown, a significant factor is whether people "decide" that Spring (or Winter) has arrived.

• Some other reason. What do you think?

In any case, it was a huge number and it has us paying attention to see what other signals might appear.

P.S. If you are buying, we are selling. Our new listing is priced at only $389.900 and is well-renovated and a stroll to absolutely everything in and around the Beach. If this sounds interesting, off you go to www.drop.io/AshlandAve

Smoke, Fire, Gas, Light and Time

Courtesy of thefireguy.ca:

Daylight Saving Time is from the second Sunday of March (March 14 this year)
This is also the best time to replace the batteries in your smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors.

If your smoke alarm, or carbon monoxide detector is over 10 years old it is recommended that they be replaced. They have a life span of about 10 years.

This is also a good time to get into the habit of testing your smoke alarm on a regular basis.

A candle will smolder after it is blown out. This smoke should activate the smoke alarm if placed directly below it.
REMEMBER; Only WORKING smoke alarms save lives!
Test YOUR smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors to-day.
Remember smoke alarms are now required on every floor level as well as outside sleeping areas.

Competition vs. MLS -- Part 2-ish

The real estate section of today's Globe has an article headlined "Under the Gun" It starts off with an example of a couple in court because they got badly screwed around by unscrupulous-sounding agents. Then to the lady in the main photo who has burned through 4 agents who "failed" to sell it. We get a little dose of an agent defending their services, then into a Queen's professor who pretty much slags the current MLS setup. Ouch. Allow me to pull a couple of things out of the article that you may have missed in the whole "agents are useless crooks who are about to get their comeuppance" flavour of the thing.

First of all, the court case. Sounds like the agents failed to disclose "multiple representation" or "dual agency" and failed to disclose a family relationship between an agent and a buyer/seller. If true, nail them.

Or maybe they disclosed but did a poor job (accidentally or on purpose) of explaining and/or the sellers didn't read or pay attention to what they were signing. If true, nail both sides.

In any case, what the hell does a single anecdote of unethical behaviour have to do with the state of the industry? That was rhetorical; the answer is "It doesn't". Every profession has its baddies ... the occasional accountant steals, the occasional lawyer steals or screws up, the occasional financial analyst runs a massive Ponzi scheme. Shouldn't happen but it does.

Next up, the lady who burned through four agents who couldn't sell her house. Sounds like every time she went with one who said he "had clients who were interested" or "had contacts". Four times? We all have contacts and clients. That's not how you pick an agent. At least not four times.

So she decided to sell it herself, thereby supporting the "real estate is messed up and needs to change so that people have more options" theory. Well, she did have an option and she tried it (selling it herself). That didn't work either. Her bottom line: "She is now planning to list with [another] agent" but apparently using different selection criteria.

If you burn through four agents, plus yourself, and are working on number five, this is NOT an indication of systemic flaws in the industry. Even if you are cosmicly incompetent in selecting professional advisors, your house will eventually sell on MLS ... unless ... Unless your market truly stinks (not true here ... this was Calgary, not Detroit) or the house is seriously overpriced (I'm putting my money on this one).

And at the risk of being repetitive, she's about to hire an agent!

Finally, the prof. He says a rival database to MLS could give better information, the industry is protectionist, the consumer should have do-it-yourself choices, etc. But what would he do if selling his house? "I would probably pay full commission for the full service ... I know I would be able to find somebody really really good".

I am not saying our system is perfect. I am not saying that all agents are expert and professional. But here's a summary of this article from one perspective:

A certain number of agents behave badly. A lady in Calgary is learning that selling a home involves more than putting a sign on the lawn, and requires some care in selecting an appropriate representative. And an expert observer who seems to think big changes are needed would use a good traditional approach to selling his own home. Hmm.

P.S. Why is this called "Part 2"? Check it out.

That might work, ... if ...

The Feds have announced some changes. If everyone sees them for what they are -- and what the Feds say they are -- they should be good. They should slow you down if you were about to do something silly. But they shouldn't stop you or seriously restrict you in doing what you want to do in real estate.

The first and major change requires. you to "qualify" for your mortgage at the five-year fixed rate. So you qualify by "pretending" that you are getting a mortgage at say 4.7% (whatever the 5 year rate du jour is). Then you go ahead and grab that juicy 2.5% variable rate.
This is kind of like your government protecting you against yourself. Might make our FoxNews-watching neighbours scream "socialism" and go a little crazy. But might also make you thank them if your variable rate starts up in a year or two.

Next up, is a new limit on the maximum amount you can refinance to. It's still early and I need more details on this one, but here's what I THINK they are up to. You can still go 95% mortgage when you buy a house. But, when your mortgage comes up for renewal, you have to get to at least 10% equity/90% mortgage. Why?
They are trying to encourage building up a safety cushion of equity. Presumably they are also discouraging a few folks who have lots of equity but are tempted to borrow back the whole wad in order to "buy themselves something frilly". For example, say you think it's time to buy some stocks or a snazzy cottage, etc. -- Well, fine, just don't risk absolutely everything on some delusion that interest rates will nudge zero forever and real estate will go endlessly and uninterruptibly up. ("Uninterruptibly"???)

Third is the one that I hope won't turn into one of those things that shows up in the headlines with the explanation continued on page 6. Headline: MINIMUM 20% DOWN"... page 6: "if you are buying a place for speculation/investment/rental income". In other words for 95% of you, it doesn't change anything.

First take. If I screwed it up, you can tell me. Or I'll post clarifications, corrections and apologies later.