229 Bain Avenue

We have a new listing. It's a beauty, in the heart of Riverdale. You can read all about it here, or better yet, come and see it. Open Houses this weekend (Sat./Sun. 2-4 pm, Oct.24 &25)

The Other Hand: Staging, Stats, and Skipped Bits

Here I go again with my lectures about looking reasonably carefully before jumping to conclusions and "answers".

A good agent who is also a great marketer dropped a card in our mailbox the other day with a two-sided pitch on the benefits of home staging. We absolutely believe that staging has become almost essential for most homes in today's market.

I have a pet rant about staging, but it's pointless to bore you with it -- whether I "like" universal staging doesn't matter; it usually works if done right; and since everybody else is going to do it, you pretty much have to do it as well.

But the amount and type of staging depends on the market, the particular home and other circumstances.

Like selecting an agent and nearly everything else in real estate, staging has a whole bunch of "art" and "situation" about it.

A nice survey-based table showing how much you will "make" on a given staging activity looks very scientific and "factual". If only it were that simple. The piece in my mailbox gives examples such as "Update kitchen and bathrooms" at a cost of $1404-$1828 yielding a price increase of $3216-$3934. To the author's credit, a source is noted: "HomeGain survey of 2000 sales representatives nationwide..."

My bank account seems to drop more than $1828 by just speaking to a contractor, let alone actually doing a kitchen reno. Note it says "updating". They are probably talking about a countertop and sink, some paint and a few other bits. Now if you have to deal with solidly laid out-of-fashion ceramic tile on the floor, a nice 70's era "Florida ceiling" and avocado appliances ... well, start by adding another zero to the cost.

Then there's that HomeGain survey itself. HomeGain is an American real estate marketing firm. Their survey was of sales representatives in the U.S. and appears to have come out in 2007 as the market was beginning to badly misbehave down there. Not sure how big a difference any of those things make, but they give me pause.

[The HomeGain survey results can be found in a very useful HomeGain guide that you can download here ]

On the other side of the card, another survey result: professionally staged homes sell 80% faster!

Again, all credit to the agent for noting the source. StagedHomes.com is an organization involved in the training, accreditation and promotion of stagers.

The data was gathered during the period when BOTH Canadian and American markets were slumping. The bit not mentioned in the source-credit: 55% of the homes were vacant!

And the 80% differential is between 37 days to sell for the staged home vs. 6 months for the others! The average days-on-market for the entire Toronto area in September was a very-low 27 days.

To summarize, I'm not dissing staging. It's important and works when done right in the right situation. But the "proof" in these statistics and surveys is far from conclusive. Really I'm just illustrating a caveat for many things in real estate ... and life, for that matter:

Wiser people than I have warned about the tendency to try to make decisions and issues as simple as we want them to be, rather than dealing with the complexity that truly comprises them.

"If a string has one end, then it has another end"
"Policy [or rules] are for the guidance of wise men, and the strict adherence of fools".

Some things we still don't know...

We read the stories, we study the numbers, we talk to colleagues, we think (even when it hurts). We would love to just keep quoting the monthly amazing news out of the recent real estate market ... most sales ever for the month ... prices up ... recession bottomed out . But ... you knew there would be a "but" didn't you? . Back in the Fall of 2008, the headlines read "It's all going away ... hide in the basement ... the sky is falling". Down a couple of paragraphs, the story usually said something like "well, actually we're not in nearly as bad shape as the U.S., and even with the 6-10% price slippage we're still way ahead historically, and even that slippage is deceptive as it only applies to some market segments, and ...".
And if it didn't qualify the bad news, there would be a whole article a couple of pages on saying everything was going to be fine.

Nothing much happened early in 2009, even when it SHOULD have been happening ... Spring market and all that.

And then away we went. Maybe people just couldn't resist the low rates. Maybe they looked around and decided they were ok and could move ahead. For whatever reason, the buyers came back. Sellers were a little slower and that magnified the return to rising prices.

Traditionally it all slows down in the summer. Not this year. That led to the screaming headlines about some summer month having umpteen percent more sales than a year ago ... a new record!

Well yeah, July and August sales were way ahead of last year because hardly anything ever sells in the summer, but it did this year. What wasn't in the headline was that year-to-date roughly the same number of houses have sold in 2009 and 2008. Not very many in Feb., tons in August, in total up only 1.2%

And the standard two paragraphs into the articles about the end of the recession comes the comments about how long and hard the recovery will be and how jobs come back last.
Our own financial analyst, who I am beginning to hate despite what a good job he does, is pretty sure the hurtin' isn't over.

So?
So, if you think the trouble is over and everything is cheery you are probably wrong. And if you think it's all insanity, everybody is drinking the KoolAid and we're doomed you are probably wrong.

The market IS currently healthy and active. Interest rates ARE amazingly low. So if you are thinking of a move and are reasonably secure with decent credit, go for it.
But don't forget how you swore you were going to be more sensible about spending, and you weren't going to step quite so close to the financial edge anymore, etc.
Take advantage of cheap money, reasonable prices and your personal stability. But leave a little wiggle room in case ... well, just in case.

If that made sense and you are looking, and you're looking for a great bright excellently-maintained 4 bedroom home in our part of the world, wander over to www.drop.io/AmsterdamAve and have a look at our newest listing.

Did you miss me? ... Well, don't miss this !

You have been spared blog updates through much of the summer. Partly because noone was likely to read them. An attempt at sorting out all the "hot market" news will be posted very soon.

But if a beautiful 4 bedroom home in a Unionvill neighbourhood sounds interesting to you, you should have a look at our new listing. It was just listed this morning (Wed, Sept 9) and there will be more info loaded over the next hours; but there is already the basic listing and lots of pics at www.drop.io/42ndStreet

Update: beyond housevalues.ca to justlisted.ca

A while ago, I did a quick explanation of how the tv-advertised housevalues.ca works. That post is here, or see below. Now there is another ad airing for a site called justlisted.ca. What's it all about?.

Same company, same deal. It's a US company whose product is leads for agents. So yes, you can sign up for new listings to be emailed to you, but you will also be immediately contacted by whatever agent has purchased the rights to your area.

You can get the same information from the local agent of YOUR CHOICE. Any Toronto Board agent can set up a "match" which will automatically email you listings or changes that match your criteria -- criteria much more refineable than the justlisted.ca options. They aren't evil, but you should know what you are getting into.

HELP! Beach Biffy Bodies Beseeched

If you have been strolling the boardwalk lately, you may have noticed the washrooms have been locked due to the strike. Without getting into the civic/labour politics, this is a problem for this time of year. Alan Burke is the pres. of the EBCA, an East Beach neighbourhood organization. It appears he and some helpers spent a witching hour a few days ago pushing a toilet/trailer from Ashbridge to Woodbine Beach.
The result is that, at least during prime hours on nice days a bio-break is possible without breaking public decency regs.

But he needs help staffing the trailer. This involves keeping an eye on things (not those things), collecting donations (to go toward the rental cost) and helping a bit with cleaning. High school students could score some public service hours.

If you can give a hand, give Alan a call at 416-566-0949

Transitions Seminar

Thanks to all who attended the "Transitions" session we were part of on Monday. Initiated by "Trusted Transitions" , we delivered ideas and information on how to get a home "working" better in order to stay in it longer and happier; plus material on the process, options and issues if a move is the answer. It went well, only one person fell asleep, and we may have been tagged for a repeat performance!
Kathy Zaremba of Trusted Transitions started things off going through the 8 steps of "smartsizing" -- "preparing for change as we age" and talked about it being absolutely "OK" to make a change that makes your life more enjoyable and just better.
Changes in the current living arrangement can keep you there longer and happier. And there are ways to make the changes without spending the money you need for day to day life.

We all spent a bit of time on the various options available if staying in the current home just doesn't work.

We homed in on the selling process. We recognized that the very thought of selling is just the beginning of the potential stress. But there are lots of ways to get help and minimize the stress. And it's all en route to the next fabulous stage of life.

May Statistics & Analysis

Market Watch.*

June 6, 2009. The May statistics are out and we are silly enough to try to figure out what they mean.

[While we have been doing this sort of analysis (and more) for ourselves and our market understanding, we have only put it “out there” since April, 2009. It takes a fair bit of extra work to make it “pretty” and understandable (I hope) to the layman. Please, if anybody out there reads this, tell us what you think. Useful? Useless? What should be taken out? What should be added? Do you agree with the analysis? We really want the feedback.]

Overall: It’s busy out there, much like “Spring” always is. Prices are holding. Relatively low supply and high demand suggest the activity will remain brisk through June. It doesn’t always do that!

Volume: There were 2% more SALES than last May! But still 15% fewer sales than May of 2007. This is consistent with our sense of a surprisingly active Spring market – down from the 2007 wildness, but actually stronger than last year.

The total number of ACTIVE listings declined 8% or about 2000 from last month. Not surprisingly this is well above the peak sellers’ market of ’07. Somewhat surprising in this environment, total active listings is also well below last year this time, indicating a relative dearth of supply.

Why? As noted, sales remained strong. And, although more NEW listings came on the market in May than in April, it was a minor increase. New listings continue to run 30-40% below previous years. So, although demand is down from the peak, supply is down much more.

So what? Sellers continue to “sit tight”. This helps to keep the market reasonably in balance, as you will see from the price discussion. Economic uncertainty is balanced by amazingly attractive interest rates, so the buyers are still coming out. Unless summer arrives the day after this post and everybody goes camping, the market should stay strong through June because supply is tight and there is good demand.

Price: Prices remain virtually unchanged over the past two years. As we explained last month, in order to get to “the same” average price as 2007, prices have risen, fallen, and risen again. And “on average” hides the fact that a lot of the volatility was in the higher dollar brackets.

So what? It STILL sort of depends what you see on the horizon – a rising sun, or a nasty fall off the edge of the world! The analysts seem to think the bottom of the recession is near, but it isn’t unanimous.

Time: “DOM” means “days on market”. Followers will know that we don’t put much stock in this statistic when applied to a single sale or a small sample. But applied to the whole market it still tells a story. Average days on market, year over year has increased significantly! It fell by a couple of days from April to May which is consistent with a busy market but borderline significant statistically.

So What? Homes are taking longer to sell. Buyers generally have more time to think and are being more careful; and sellers have to keep their home beautiful and clean a lot longer!

There are, however, more examples of multiple offers than in recent months, though nothing like the ’07 craziness. This is due to the overall “busy-ness” and also suggests sellers have accepted that prices are not going up like they did and are pricing more reasonably.

More detail: Below are a few selected numbers, recognizing that the bulk of our clients are in the Toronto East areas.

If you need help interpreting these, have questions, or would like some specific numbers or analysis, contact us anytime. If you are masochistic enough to want to see the entire Market Watch report, off you go to http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/mw2009/pdf/mw0905.pdf Enjoy.

This Month (May 2009)

Area	Active	New	Sales	AvgPrice	MedPrice	AvgDOM	Avg%List
E01	123	135	109	$458,088	$428,000	19	102
E02	100	131	100	$537,815	$453,050	14	100
E03	205	180	149	$386,833	$370,000	26	98
E04	165	135	104	$261,618	$277,750	31	97
E06	110	94	69	$380,891	$360,000	21	98
E08	201	160	103	$293,101	$286,000	38	96
All East	4,423	3,103	2,158	$314,238	$288,000	34	98
All TREB	21,524	13,686	9,589	$395,609	$337,000	35	98

Last Month (April 2009)

Area	Active	New	Sales	AvgPrice	MedPrice	AvgDOM	Avg%List
E01	128	115	90	$421,850	$412,500	22	99
E02	105	95	85	$641,479	$484,000	28	98
E03	222	171	130	$353,453	$350,000	23	98
E04	181	115	102	$237,866	$264,750	36	96
E06	130	83	63	$396,573	$320,000	34	96
E08	206	107	77	$276,521	$280,000	32	96
All East	4,747	2,744	1,820	$306,890	$278,500	36	97
All TREB	23,515	12,995	8,107	$385,641	$330,000	37	97

Last Year (May 2008)

Area	Active	New	Sales	AvgPrice	MedPrice	AvgDOM	Avg%List
E01	166	205	109	$450,784	$410,525	14	105
E02	150	195	101	$512,674	$464,200	14	101
E03	321	305	165	$387,564	$380,000	19	101
E04	297	213	99	$263,417	$284,500	26	98
E06	145	131	57	$400,423	$349,900	20	99
E08	297	170	95	$287,986	$287,000	29	97
All East	6,186	4,330	2,241	$310,724	$287,000	28	98
All TREB	27,267	18,715	9,411	$398,148	$338,000	31	98

Two Years Ago (May 2007)

Area	Active	New	Sales	AvgPrice	MedPrice	AvgDOM	Avg%List
E01	139	189	140	$408,705	$386,750	13	106
E02	126	174	128	$507,874	$440,950	13	104
E03	327	296	169	$344,077	$335,000	20	101
E04	292	236	124	$270,894	$282,000	24	99
E06	129	138	74	$365,798	$311,800	17	100
E08	369	209	121	$295,755	$277,000	37	98
All East	5,710	4,225	2,610	$305,168	$280,000	28	99
All TREB	23,739	17,399	11,146	$382,787	$325,000	28	99

*Market Watch is a monthly publication of the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) which consolidates monthly statistics for the GTA real estate market.